Tuesday, August 21, 2018
consistency of beating consensus estimates
The mauve coloured sleeper car I slept in with my two Associated Press colleagues had been built in China, the light switch panels bearing Chinese characters. As the train stopped at one point in the dense bush of Nigeria southwest, stamps on the rail underneath said it was forged in England in 1958. A worker at a stop in Minna pointed to an old steam engine alongside the track and said Indians taught him how to drive it..
Through backtesting, we've found that certain stocks have an unusual consistency of beating consensus estimates. We explain this phenomenon in more detail in a previous post, but the idea is that analysts may forecast lower earnings to generate an earnings surprise in order to stimulate trading1, to obtain access to management2, or to confirm a prior sentiment on a stock3. With that in mind, it's important to consider whether a stock has consistently beaten analyst expectations in the past, to see if it's likely to happen again.
Wilson has enjoyed a colorful career since his basketball playing days (he is among the Wildcats' career leaders in blocked shots). He went on to play basketball for the Harlem Globetrotters, and in Europe. Later, he was an assistant coach at Holy Family University and Friends' Central (under Keino Terrell) before becoming the top man at Chichester High School last winter..
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